ABSTRACT
Background: To estimate effect of COVID-19 control measures taken to mitigate community transmission in many regions, we analyzed data based on influenza surveillance system in Beijing from week 27th, 2014 to week 26th, 2020. Methods. We collected weekly number of influenza-like illness (ILI), weekly positive proportion of ILI and weekly ILI proportion in outpatients and the date of COVID-19 measures. We compared influenza activity indicators of influenza season 2019/2020 with preceding five seasons and built two ARIMAX models to estimate the effective of COVID-19 measures. Results. Compared with preceding five influenza seasons, ILIs, positive proportion of ILI, and duration of influenza epidemic period decreased from 13% to 54%, especially, the number of weeks from the peak to the end of influenza epidemic period, decreased from 12 to one. After natural decline considered, weekly ILIs decreased by 48.6% and weekly positive proportion dropped 15% in the second week after emergency response declared, and finally COVID-19 measures reduced 83%. Conclusions. We conclude public health emergency response can interrupt the transmission of influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases markedly. Keyword. COVID-19 control measures; influenza; ARIMAX